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May 22 8:01 | London:
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May 22 21:01
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EU Market Update TRADETHENEWS.COM STAFF
ECB rate cut probability continues to rise after inflation and employment data falls; EU Summit gets underway
Economic Data
- (EU) ECB: €5.2B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €3.1B prior; €772.6B parked in deposit facility vs. €747.4B prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jun 22nd: $513.1B v $512.2B prior
- (UK) Jun Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.6% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.6%e
- (DE) Germany May ILO Employment: 41,530M v 41.489M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.6% prior
- (DK) Denmark May Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 4.4%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.2% v 6.2%e
- (HU) Hungary May Unemployment Rate: 11.2% v 11.3%e
- (ES) Spain Apr Total Housing Permits M/M: -20.7% v 6.8% prior; Y/Y: -32.4% v -27.8% prior
- (ES) Spain Jun Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e; CPI Harmonized Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (SE) Sweden May Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.8%e - (SE) Sweden May Trade Balance (SEK): 9.8B v 5.0Be
- (DE) Germany Jun Unemployment Change: +7.0K v +3.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.7%e
- (IT) Italy May PPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.5%e
- (NO) Norway Jun Unemployment Rate: 2.4% v 2.3%e
- (UK) Q1 Final GDP Q/Q:-0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.1%e
- (UK) Q1 Current Account: -£11.2B v -£9.0Be
- (UK) Q1 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: 1.9% v 3.6%e; Y/Y: 14.8% v 14.2%e
- (BE) Belgium Jun CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.8% prior
- (EU) Jun Euro Zone Business Climate Indicator: -0.94 v -0.87e; Consumer Confidence: -19.8 v -19.6e; Economic Confidence: 89.9 v 89.6e; Industrial Confidence: -12.7 v -12.0e; Services Confidence: -7.4 v -6.0e
- (PT) Portugal Jun Consumer Confidence: -51.5 v -52.6 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -4.4 v -4.6 prior
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa May PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.3%e
Fixed Income:
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK10.84B in 2-month, 6-month and 8-month Bills at negative yields
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.42B vs. €3.75-5.5B indicated range in 2017 and 2022 Bonds - Sold €2.5B vs. €1.75-2.5B indicated in 4.75% Jun 2017 BTP reopening; avg yield 5.84% v 5.66% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.54x v 1.35x prior - Sold €2.92B vs. €2.0-3.0B indicated in 5.5% Sept 2022 BTP reopening; avg yield 6.19% v 6.03% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.28x v 1.40x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF55B in 2015, 2017 and 2028 bonds
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Notes/Observations - Much-anticipated summit of European Union leaders begins; Germany fortifies its position
- German Unemployment data rises for the third straight month
- Italy come to the market for the third time this week and sells upper end of range in 5-year and 10-year issuance; higher yields with mixed bid-to-cover ratios - US Supreme Court decison on "Obamacare" expected today
Equities
FTSE 100 -0.80% at 5478, DAX -1.5% at 6133, CAC-40 -1% at 3032, IBEX-35 -0.25% at 6650, FTSE MIB -0.60% at 13,217, SMI -0.40% at 5973, S&P 500 Futures -0.60% at 1318
- Equity markets are currently trading mixed ahead of the start of the EU's two day summit. The DAX had led the declines, following the release of weaker than expected employment data out of Germany. In Italy, equity markets pared their earlier losses, after the country's Treasury sold 5-yr bonds at a yield of less than 6%. Additionally the 5-yr yield paid at the auction (5.84%) was below the current market yield. In terms of specific sectors, most banks are trading mixed, as the Spanish and Italian banks have outperformed, while Barclays and Commerzbank have lagged their peers. Miners are broadly weaker, tracking the declines in commodity prices. - In UK equity movers, shares of Xstrata [XTA.UK] are lower by over 1%, on concerns that Glencore [GLEN.UK] could walk away from their merger agreement, if certain Xstrata shareholders continue to demand a higher bid. In others movers, bookmaker Ladbrokes [LAD.UK] has lost over 5% (warned on H1 profits for the digital unit), while Debenhams [DEB.UK] has declined by ~1% (issued trading update). Air France [AF.FR] is lower on the session as the company is expected to later today present its restructuring plan. German solar names are trading broadly lower, after the government reached an agreement with the individual states on solar subsidies. Commerzbank [CBK.DE] has declined by over 3% as the company issued ~128M shares. Belgium listed Ageas [AGS.BE] has gained by more than 4%, after disclosing a settlement agreement with ABN AMRO. In Amsterdam, TomTom [TOM2.NL] is lower by over 4% on a broker downgrade.
Speakers:
- German Govt official commented ahead of the EU Leader Summit that expectations that the summit would adopt the growth pact (in line with Merkel-Hollande pre summit statement). Treaty change was not on the agenda and the EU summit would produce no detailed decisions. It sought to accomplish important work on ambitious EU roadmap. Germany wanted to keep to the planned timetable at the Summit but it would not yield formal bank supervision agreement nor likely achieve any detailed deal on banks. It stress that the aim must be to decide on precise, quick and appropriate help and program for Spain and reiterated view that bank recapitalization at EU level was premature. Germany did note that EFSF and ESM are available to help Euro Area but the recent Van Rompuy report on roadmap was unclear on how to pool debt. Lastly it stressed that EMU had enough tools to deal with the crisis and must not always contemplate new tools
- ECB's Praet commented that he was very skeptical of Italy PM Monti plan for ECB purchase of bonds guaranteed by ESM bailout fund as it would contravene ECB mandate. Banking Union must make clear how liabilities are shared with shared liability condition for shared deposit insurance funds. Spain to receive aid in tranches with payments tied to the country fulfilling conditions
- ECB's Noyer commented in the financial press that Europe required a step in the direction towards federalism and that France must reform labor market. He was very open to debt mutalization in the long term, as Europe moved to greater union but such a task would take time. He reckoned Europe had arrived at "crucial moments."
- EU's Almunia stated that the best solution for Europe was to finish the economic and monetary union. He noted that German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande positions are not dramatically opposed
- Finland PM Katainen continued to oppose Euro bonds and expected no 'miracles' from the EU Summit - Ireland Fin Min Noonan commented that the EU Summit to focus on Spanish banks and Italian sovereign yields . The objective was getting Italian yields to 4% or below.
- SNB's Danthine reiterated the view that CHF appreciation posed major challenges and the EUR/CHF was necessary for Swiss economy. He noted that the central bank was prepared to use other instruments should scenario worsen and negative interest rates was possibly an option
- German Labor Min Weise commented after the weaker unemployment data that the labor market was showing signs of weaker development but did not see any trend change
- German Econ Min Roesler stated that the weaker economy was not inhibiting jobs growth
- Japan's R&I cuts Portugal sovereign rating to BB+; Outlook Negative
- Italy Employer group Confindustria cuts its 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts and stated that the country was in abyss and impacting the economy as if it was in a war
- Hungary chief IMF negotiator Varga commented that an IMF agreement could be signed between mid-Aug and mid-Oct period and any agreement should be close to market expectations of €15B. He also noted that a flat tax was a "strong point" in economic policy
- Sweden FSA official: Proposes higher requirements for bank liquidity buffers
- South Korea cut 2012 growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.7% and cuts its inflation forecast to 2.8% from 3.2%. Korea set its intial GDP growth forecast at 4.3% - Government, public funds and state firms to increase spending by over $7B to support growth.
Currencies: - The trading environment was e cautious ahead of the long-awaited EU Leader summit with the EUR currency on the defensive as weaker European data and Germany fortifying its position proved to be headwinds for risk appetite.
- Softer Italian PPI data and weaker German employment figures boosted the ECB rate cut probability next week with analyst calls now between 25-50bps cut in the main refi rate from the historic low level of 1.00%. The EUR/USD finally mustered enough momentum to firmly break below the 1.2450 level which held like a rock throughout the week.
- The JPY also benefited from risk aversion during the session. The USD/JPY edged towards the lower end of the 79 handle while EUR/JPY cross retested below 98.40 area - The GBP was mixed in the session after its final Q1 GDP reading. GBP/USD at 1.5545 ahead of the NY morning with the EUR/GBP cross at 0.7995
Political/ In the Papers: - Credit ratings agency S&P expects Dutch home prices to continue to steadily fall in the next 12-18 months, as a result of the difficult economic environment and structural reforms aimed at gradually phasing out mortgage tax relief. The cost of risk on domestic mortgages (impairment charges to total mortgages loans) could increase substantially under an adverse stress scenario, albeit from a very low base. The S&P base-case projection is a more moderate deterioration to about 12 basis points (bps) from an estimated 7 bps in 2011. - Japan's rating agency R&I lowered the sovereign rating of Portugal to BB+. The outlook is now seen as negative. - In its monthly minutes release for May, the Polish Central Bank had voted 8-2 to raise rates with members Bratkowksi and Chojna-Duch as the dissenters. - In the German press, a poll of German banks and economists revealed the number of those unemployed in June may be around 2.81M. The expected decline in June unemployment would be much lower than the avg of the past three years. In May, the seasonally adjusted unemployment level was 2.872M and the unadjusted figure was 2.855M. - European banks may have to increase the capital levels of their Spanish units. Reports suggested a further worsening of Spain's economy and certain regulations for the banking sector could require firms (including Barclays, Deutsche Bank and ING) to conduct capital raises for their Spanish units.
Looking Ahead
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent) - 6:00 (EU) EU Liberal Leaders Hold Pre-Summit Meeting - (IS) Israeli May Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.7% prior
- 6:00 (IE) Ireland May Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.7% prior -
6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 9-month Bills
- 7:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate decision: Expected to cut the Repo Rate by 25bps to 0.50%
- 7:00 (EU) ECB's Constancio speaks in Madrid
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.6%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 5.1%e v 4.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP Q/Q Annualized: 1.9%e v 1.9% prelim; Personal Consumption: 2.7%e v 2.7% prelim
- 8:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP Price Index: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 2.1%e v 2.1% prelim
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 385Ke v 387K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.280Me v 3.299M prior
- 9:00 (EU) EU Leaders hold Summit in Belgium
- 9:30 (US) Weekly Commercial Paper Outstanding
- 10:00 (US) Supreme Court expected to render decision on healthcare reform legislation (Obamacare)
- 10:30 (US) IMF press conference - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory data
- 11:00 (US) Jun Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 4e v 9 prior
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Zero Coupon Fixed Rate 2013, 2014 and 2016 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to sell $8.00-8.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks in Cleveland
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks in Aspen on the Economy
- 13:00 (UK) BOE member Weale
- 13:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 19:01 (UK) Jun GFK Consumer Confidence: -29e v -29 prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan May Unemployment rate: 4.5%e v 4.6% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan May National CPI Ex-food&energy Y/Y: -0.6%e v -0.3% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan May Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -2.8%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.6%e v 12.9% prior
- (EU) ECB: €5.2B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €3.1B prior; €772.6B parked in deposit facility vs. €747.4B prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jun 22nd: $513.1B v $512.2B prior
- (UK) Jun Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.6% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.6%e
- (DE) Germany May ILO Employment: 41,530M v 41.489M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.6% prior
- (DK) Denmark May Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 4.4%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.2% v 6.2%e
- (HU) Hungary May Unemployment Rate: 11.2% v 11.3%e
- (ES) Spain Apr Total Housing Permits M/M: -20.7% v 6.8% prior; Y/Y: -32.4% v -27.8% prior
- (ES) Spain Jun Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e; CPI Harmonized Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (SE) Sweden May Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.8%e - (SE) Sweden May Trade Balance (SEK): 9.8B v 5.0Be
- (DE) Germany Jun Unemployment Change: +7.0K v +3.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.7%e
- (IT) Italy May PPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.5%e
- (NO) Norway Jun Unemployment Rate: 2.4% v 2.3%e
- (UK) Q1 Final GDP Q/Q:-0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.1%e
- (UK) Q1 Current Account: -£11.2B v -£9.0Be
- (UK) Q1 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: 1.9% v 3.6%e; Y/Y: 14.8% v 14.2%e
- (BE) Belgium Jun CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.8% prior
- (EU) Jun Euro Zone Business Climate Indicator: -0.94 v -0.87e; Consumer Confidence: -19.8 v -19.6e; Economic Confidence: 89.9 v 89.6e; Industrial Confidence: -12.7 v -12.0e; Services Confidence: -7.4 v -6.0e
- (PT) Portugal Jun Consumer Confidence: -51.5 v -52.6 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -4.4 v -4.6 prior
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa May PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.3%e
Fixed Income:
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK10.84B in 2-month, 6-month and 8-month Bills at negative yields
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.42B vs. €3.75-5.5B indicated range in 2017 and 2022 Bonds - Sold €2.5B vs. €1.75-2.5B indicated in 4.75% Jun 2017 BTP reopening; avg yield 5.84% v 5.66% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.54x v 1.35x prior - Sold €2.92B vs. €2.0-3.0B indicated in 5.5% Sept 2022 BTP reopening; avg yield 6.19% v 6.03% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.28x v 1.40x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF55B in 2015, 2017 and 2028 bonds
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Notes/Observations - Much-anticipated summit of European Union leaders begins; Germany fortifies its position
- German Unemployment data rises for the third straight month
- Italy come to the market for the third time this week and sells upper end of range in 5-year and 10-year issuance; higher yields with mixed bid-to-cover ratios - US Supreme Court decison on "Obamacare" expected today
Equities
FTSE 100 -0.80% at 5478, DAX -1.5% at 6133, CAC-40 -1% at 3032, IBEX-35 -0.25% at 6650, FTSE MIB -0.60% at 13,217, SMI -0.40% at 5973, S&P 500 Futures -0.60% at 1318
- Equity markets are currently trading mixed ahead of the start of the EU's two day summit. The DAX had led the declines, following the release of weaker than expected employment data out of Germany. In Italy, equity markets pared their earlier losses, after the country's Treasury sold 5-yr bonds at a yield of less than 6%. Additionally the 5-yr yield paid at the auction (5.84%) was below the current market yield. In terms of specific sectors, most banks are trading mixed, as the Spanish and Italian banks have outperformed, while Barclays and Commerzbank have lagged their peers. Miners are broadly weaker, tracking the declines in commodity prices. - In UK equity movers, shares of Xstrata [XTA.UK] are lower by over 1%, on concerns that Glencore [GLEN.UK] could walk away from their merger agreement, if certain Xstrata shareholders continue to demand a higher bid. In others movers, bookmaker Ladbrokes [LAD.UK] has lost over 5% (warned on H1 profits for the digital unit), while Debenhams [DEB.UK] has declined by ~1% (issued trading update). Air France [AF.FR] is lower on the session as the company is expected to later today present its restructuring plan. German solar names are trading broadly lower, after the government reached an agreement with the individual states on solar subsidies. Commerzbank [CBK.DE] has declined by over 3% as the company issued ~128M shares. Belgium listed Ageas [AGS.BE] has gained by more than 4%, after disclosing a settlement agreement with ABN AMRO. In Amsterdam, TomTom [TOM2.NL] is lower by over 4% on a broker downgrade.
Speakers:
- German Govt official commented ahead of the EU Leader Summit that expectations that the summit would adopt the growth pact (in line with Merkel-Hollande pre summit statement). Treaty change was not on the agenda and the EU summit would produce no detailed decisions. It sought to accomplish important work on ambitious EU roadmap. Germany wanted to keep to the planned timetable at the Summit but it would not yield formal bank supervision agreement nor likely achieve any detailed deal on banks. It stress that the aim must be to decide on precise, quick and appropriate help and program for Spain and reiterated view that bank recapitalization at EU level was premature. Germany did note that EFSF and ESM are available to help Euro Area but the recent Van Rompuy report on roadmap was unclear on how to pool debt. Lastly it stressed that EMU had enough tools to deal with the crisis and must not always contemplate new tools
- ECB's Praet commented that he was very skeptical of Italy PM Monti plan for ECB purchase of bonds guaranteed by ESM bailout fund as it would contravene ECB mandate. Banking Union must make clear how liabilities are shared with shared liability condition for shared deposit insurance funds. Spain to receive aid in tranches with payments tied to the country fulfilling conditions
- ECB's Noyer commented in the financial press that Europe required a step in the direction towards federalism and that France must reform labor market. He was very open to debt mutalization in the long term, as Europe moved to greater union but such a task would take time. He reckoned Europe had arrived at "crucial moments."
- EU's Almunia stated that the best solution for Europe was to finish the economic and monetary union. He noted that German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande positions are not dramatically opposed
- Finland PM Katainen continued to oppose Euro bonds and expected no 'miracles' from the EU Summit - Ireland Fin Min Noonan commented that the EU Summit to focus on Spanish banks and Italian sovereign yields . The objective was getting Italian yields to 4% or below.
- SNB's Danthine reiterated the view that CHF appreciation posed major challenges and the EUR/CHF was necessary for Swiss economy. He noted that the central bank was prepared to use other instruments should scenario worsen and negative interest rates was possibly an option
- German Labor Min Weise commented after the weaker unemployment data that the labor market was showing signs of weaker development but did not see any trend change
- German Econ Min Roesler stated that the weaker economy was not inhibiting jobs growth
- Japan's R&I cuts Portugal sovereign rating to BB+; Outlook Negative
- Italy Employer group Confindustria cuts its 2012 and 2013 GDP forecasts and stated that the country was in abyss and impacting the economy as if it was in a war
- Hungary chief IMF negotiator Varga commented that an IMF agreement could be signed between mid-Aug and mid-Oct period and any agreement should be close to market expectations of €15B. He also noted that a flat tax was a "strong point" in economic policy
- Sweden FSA official: Proposes higher requirements for bank liquidity buffers
- South Korea cut 2012 growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.7% and cuts its inflation forecast to 2.8% from 3.2%. Korea set its intial GDP growth forecast at 4.3% - Government, public funds and state firms to increase spending by over $7B to support growth.
Currencies: - The trading environment was e cautious ahead of the long-awaited EU Leader summit with the EUR currency on the defensive as weaker European data and Germany fortifying its position proved to be headwinds for risk appetite.
- Softer Italian PPI data and weaker German employment figures boosted the ECB rate cut probability next week with analyst calls now between 25-50bps cut in the main refi rate from the historic low level of 1.00%. The EUR/USD finally mustered enough momentum to firmly break below the 1.2450 level which held like a rock throughout the week.
- The JPY also benefited from risk aversion during the session. The USD/JPY edged towards the lower end of the 79 handle while EUR/JPY cross retested below 98.40 area - The GBP was mixed in the session after its final Q1 GDP reading. GBP/USD at 1.5545 ahead of the NY morning with the EUR/GBP cross at 0.7995
Political/ In the Papers: - Credit ratings agency S&P expects Dutch home prices to continue to steadily fall in the next 12-18 months, as a result of the difficult economic environment and structural reforms aimed at gradually phasing out mortgage tax relief. The cost of risk on domestic mortgages (impairment charges to total mortgages loans) could increase substantially under an adverse stress scenario, albeit from a very low base. The S&P base-case projection is a more moderate deterioration to about 12 basis points (bps) from an estimated 7 bps in 2011. - Japan's rating agency R&I lowered the sovereign rating of Portugal to BB+. The outlook is now seen as negative. - In its monthly minutes release for May, the Polish Central Bank had voted 8-2 to raise rates with members Bratkowksi and Chojna-Duch as the dissenters. - In the German press, a poll of German banks and economists revealed the number of those unemployed in June may be around 2.81M. The expected decline in June unemployment would be much lower than the avg of the past three years. In May, the seasonally adjusted unemployment level was 2.872M and the unadjusted figure was 2.855M. - European banks may have to increase the capital levels of their Spanish units. Reports suggested a further worsening of Spain's economy and certain regulations for the banking sector could require firms (including Barclays, Deutsche Bank and ING) to conduct capital raises for their Spanish units.
Looking Ahead
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent) - 6:00 (EU) EU Liberal Leaders Hold Pre-Summit Meeting - (IS) Israeli May Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.7% prior
- 6:00 (IE) Ireland May Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.7% prior -
6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 9-month Bills
- 7:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate decision: Expected to cut the Repo Rate by 25bps to 0.50%
- 7:00 (EU) ECB's Constancio speaks in Madrid
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.6%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 5.1%e v 4.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP Q/Q Annualized: 1.9%e v 1.9% prelim; Personal Consumption: 2.7%e v 2.7% prelim
- 8:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP Price Index: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 2.1%e v 2.1% prelim
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 385Ke v 387K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.280Me v 3.299M prior
- 9:00 (EU) EU Leaders hold Summit in Belgium
- 9:30 (US) Weekly Commercial Paper Outstanding
- 10:00 (US) Supreme Court expected to render decision on healthcare reform legislation (Obamacare)
- 10:30 (US) IMF press conference - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory data
- 11:00 (US) Jun Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 4e v 9 prior
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Zero Coupon Fixed Rate 2013, 2014 and 2016 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to sell $8.00-8.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks in Cleveland
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks in Aspen on the Economy
- 13:00 (UK) BOE member Weale
- 13:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 19:01 (UK) Jun GFK Consumer Confidence: -29e v -29 prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan May Unemployment rate: 4.5%e v 4.6% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan May National CPI Ex-food&energy Y/Y: -0.6%e v -0.3% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan May Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -2.8%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.6%e v 12.9% prior
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