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Investors Unwilling To Send Markets Higher Before January Jobs Report   
Thu, 31 Jan 2013 11:43 AM EST/04:43 PM GMT
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Economic Data
- (BR) Brazil Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.5%e
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve USD w/e Jan 25th: $530.7B v $530.4B prior
- (IS) Israel Dec Unemployment Rate: 6.9% v 6.8% prior
- (CL) Chile Dec Unemployment Rate: 6.1%% v 6.0%e
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Trade Balance (ZAR):-2.7BB v -2.4Be
- (RU) Russia 2012 Annual Real GDP Real Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.6%e
- (US) Jan Challenger Job Cuts: 40.4K v 32.6K prior; Y/Y: -24.4% v -22.1% prior
- (US) Feb RBC Consumer Outlook: 49.5 v 48.0 prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Jan Inflation Expectations: 2.7% v 2.8%e
- (DE) Germany Jan Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.0%e
- (DE) Germany Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0%e
- (US) Dec Personal Income: 2.6% v 0.8%e; Personal Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (US) Dec PCE Deflator M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (US) Dec PCE Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 368K v 351Ke; Continuing Claims: 3.197M v 3.171Me
- (US) Q4 Employment Cost Index: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (CA) Canada Nov Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (CA) Canada Dec Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -2.0% v +0.3%e
- (US) Jan NAPM-Milwaukee: 51.3 v 52.0 v prior
- (US) Jan Chicago Purchasing Manager: 55.6 v 50.5e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories -194 bcf v -205 to -210 bce expected

- US indices made a move higher in the first hour of trading before rolling over and dipping into the red. The DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq are all down approx 0.1% to 0.2% a piece. Note that the best Chicago PMI data since last spring is not helping stem the slide this morning.

- The surge in the December personal income data, its largest gain since 2004, is being blamed on the bubble of special dividends paid out before the end of 2012. At that time, the early payment of Q1 dividends plus tons of special dividends were designed to shield payees from higher taxes as part of the fiscal cliff deal. After several weeks of better numbers, including the five-year low in the prior week's data, the weekly claims numbers ticked a bit higher. Note that estimates for tomorrow's Jan non-farm payrolls report are around +160K.

- The debate rages over Facebook this morning, as analysts and investors duke it out over whether the firm's numbers were positive or not, and whether $30 is the top or just the beginning for the stock. Headline numbers for Q4 were a hair above consensus, while all its major user metrics were pretty strong. Facebook's mobile ad revenue doubled sequentially, however margins were down big on a y/y basis. Shares of the company have gained 60% since the bottom in November and are around $30 presently. FB lost more than 6% in the premarket, but is only down about 3.6% presently.

- Shares of solid-state drive maker Fusion-io had decent results in its Q2, however its Q3 and FY13 forecasts were very weak. The company said key customers Apple and Facebook had delayed bulk orders; Facebook alone was 30% of the firm's orders in the prior FY. FIO is down 15% or so in cash trading.

- Qualcomm crushed estimates and raised its FY13 guidance by a broad margin. The firm saw strong growth in unit shipments and very good demand for its chips, confirming the mobile industry as the healthiest part of the overall tech industry. QCOM is up around 5%.

- UPS is down 1.9% after earnings missed expectations in the firm's Q4. The company blamed the miss on Hurricane Sandy. Meanwhile, UPS's FY13 forecast was a bit soft.

- Dow Chemical is a big drag this morning, as revenue was flat or down y/y in all of its geographies in its Q4. The firm warned that it saw significant deterioration in its markets, particularly in China, in the second half of 2012, and renewed its commitment to more cost cutting and more divestitures. Shares of DOW are down nearly 6%.

- Shares of Constellation Brands tanked 20% mid morning after US authorities confirmed that they would file an anti-trust case to prevent the merger of Mexico's Modelo with Inbev. Constellation had a deal to acquire a 50% stake in the Crown Imports JV from InBev for $1.85B; this would have given it control of distribution and pricing for all Modelo brands in the US. This deal is obviously now on hold.

- Pitney Bowes is up 18% on moderate outperformance in its Q4 results.

- Harman is a big earnings loser this morning, with shares down nearly 14%. The car audio equipment firm's quarterly profits were down around 20%, missing expectations, while revenue fell around 6%.

- There is one small acquisition deal in focus this morning. Gaming machine manufacturer WMS Industries is being acquired by Scientific Games for $26/shr in cash, in a deal valued at $1.5B. Bally Technologies is up more than 5% in sympathy, while WMS is up more than 50%.

Looking Ahead
- (ES) Spain ban on Short Selling scheduled to end
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.0%e v 9.8% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Construction Activity M/M: No est v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.7% prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Dec Jobless Rate: 4.1%e v 4.1% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Jan Manufacturing PMI: 51.0e v 50.6 prior
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