Reports Q4 $1.19 v $1.09e, Rev $24.3B v $23.8Be; Notes Cybetruck remains on track to begin production later in 2023
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 4:05:57 PMEST
- Guides initial FY23 vehicle production at 1.8M (v 1.31M y/y implying 37% growth) and to remain ahead of long-term 50% CAGR
Outlook
- Volume: Affirms expectation to achieve 50% avg annual growth in vehicle deliveries over multi-year horizon (prior 50%); In some years may grow faster, some may grow slower. For 2023 expect to remain ahead of long term 50% CAGR around 1.8M cars for the year.
- Product: Cybertruck remains on track to begin production this year in Texas
- Profit: Continue to believe our operating margin will remain the highest among volume OEMs (carmarkers)
- Cash flow: Have sufficient liquidity to fund our product roadmap and expansion plans. Will manage the business to maintain a strong balance sheet during this uncertain period.
- Comments: As we progress into 2023, we know that there are questions about the near-term impact of an uncertain macroeconomic environment, and in particular, with rising interest rates. The Tesla team is used to challenges, given the culture required to get the company to where it is today. In the near term, we are accelerating cost reduction roadmap and driving toward higher production rates; Relentless cost control and cost innovation is why we believe no other OEM is better equipped to navigate through 2023
- Next generation vehicle platform is under development, with additional details to be shared at Investor Day on Mar 1st
- Total Q4 deliveries 405K v 343K q/q (previously reported)
- Model S/X deliveries 17.1K v 18.7K q/q
- Model 3/Y deliveries 388.1K v 325.2K q/q
- FCF $1.4B v $3.3B q/q
- GAAP Gross margin 23.8% v 27.4% y/y
- Operating margin 16% v 14.7% y/y
- adj EBITDA $5.4B v $4.1B y/y; margin 22.2% v 23.1% y/y
- US: Model Y production line in Austin produced over 3,000 units per week toward the end of Q4. Pilot production of Semi commenced in Q4 and first deliveries ere in Dec 2022.
- Shanghai: production challenges were largely concentrated in China. Since Shanghai factory has been successfully running near full capacity for several months, we do not expect meaningful sequential volume increases in the near term.
- California and Texas:
- Europe, Berlin-Brandenburg: Model Y production in Germany was over 3,000 units per week toward the end of Q4.
- Energy Storage: deployments increased by 152% y/y in Q4 to 2.5Gwh for total deployment of 6.5Gwh in 2022. Demand for storage remains in excess of supply. In the process of ramping production at our 40GWh Megapack factory in Lathrop, CA.
- Solar: Deployment rose 18% y/y to 100MW. 2022 deployment were highest since 2017 at 348MW, despite supply chain issues.
- Services: Services and Other at all time high in 2022, largely due to used cars and transactions in support of a growing Tesla fleet, such as parts sales and paid supercharging. Used car ASPs declined sequentially in Q4 but used car margins remained healthy.
- Link: https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure
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Outlook
- Volume: Affirms expectation to achieve 50% avg annual growth in vehicle deliveries over multi-year horizon (prior 50%); In some years may grow faster, some may grow slower. For 2023 expect to remain ahead of long term 50% CAGR around 1.8M cars for the year.
- Product: Cybertruck remains on track to begin production this year in Texas
- Profit: Continue to believe our operating margin will remain the highest among volume OEMs (carmarkers)
- Cash flow: Have sufficient liquidity to fund our product roadmap and expansion plans. Will manage the business to maintain a strong balance sheet during this uncertain period.
- Comments: As we progress into 2023, we know that there are questions about the near-term impact of an uncertain macroeconomic environment, and in particular, with rising interest rates. The Tesla team is used to challenges, given the culture required to get the company to where it is today. In the near term, we are accelerating cost reduction roadmap and driving toward higher production rates; Relentless cost control and cost innovation is why we believe no other OEM is better equipped to navigate through 2023
- Next generation vehicle platform is under development, with additional details to be shared at Investor Day on Mar 1st
- Total Q4 deliveries 405K v 343K q/q (previously reported)
- Model S/X deliveries 17.1K v 18.7K q/q
- Model 3/Y deliveries 388.1K v 325.2K q/q
- FCF $1.4B v $3.3B q/q
- GAAP Gross margin 23.8% v 27.4% y/y
- Operating margin 16% v 14.7% y/y
- adj EBITDA $5.4B v $4.1B y/y; margin 22.2% v 23.1% y/y
- US: Model Y production line in Austin produced over 3,000 units per week toward the end of Q4. Pilot production of Semi commenced in Q4 and first deliveries ere in Dec 2022.
- Shanghai: production challenges were largely concentrated in China. Since Shanghai factory has been successfully running near full capacity for several months, we do not expect meaningful sequential volume increases in the near term.
- California and Texas:
- Europe, Berlin-Brandenburg: Model Y production in Germany was over 3,000 units per week toward the end of Q4.
- Energy Storage: deployments increased by 152% y/y in Q4 to 2.5Gwh for total deployment of 6.5Gwh in 2022. Demand for storage remains in excess of supply. In the process of ramping production at our 40GWh Megapack factory in Lathrop, CA.
- Solar: Deployment rose 18% y/y to 100MW. 2022 deployment were highest since 2017 at 348MW, despite supply chain issues.
- Services: Services and Other at all time high in 2022, largely due to used cars and transactions in support of a growing Tesla fleet, such as parts sales and paid supercharging. Used car ASPs declined sequentially in Q4 but used car margins remained healthy.
- Link: https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure