Trade The News story
TradeTheNews.com 2026-2027 AI DC Expansion Risk Radar
OCTOBER
October 20 - Northern Virginia data-center permitting moratorium, Loudoun County; county supervisors consider a potential pause of up to 12 months on certain new data-center and substation approvals. A consequential test of how aggressively America's largest data-center market may restrict future expansion. Existing by-right projects may be treated differently.
October 21 - Related Digital Michigan data-center wastewater permit hearing; Michigan EGLE holds a public hearing on permit MI0060445 for the Saline Township development. Water infrastructure is one of several permitting dependencies for Oracle's planned approximately 1.4-GW Michigan campus.
October 22 - Bloom Energy Q3 earnings / Project Jupiter fuel-cell supply; update on fuel-cell manufacturing capacity, order conversion and commissioning schedules. Particularly relevant to Oracle's proposed 2.45-GW fuel-cell microgrid at Project Jupiter, where equipment production and installation could become critical-path constraints.
October 26, 08:30 MT - Oracle Project Jupiter air-permit dismissal hearing; New Mexico regulators consider motions to dismiss the air-permit proceeding. An adverse procedural ruling could reshape or delay the project's approval pathway before the December evidentiary hearing.
October 29 - Project Jupiter air-permit discovery hearing; hearing on discovery motions in New Mexico's NSR 10883 proceeding. Additional disclosure requirements or expanded technical challenges could lengthen the regulatory process.
October 29 - Texas / San Antonio data-center zoning decision; City Council considers additional restrictions affecting data-center development. Watch for exemptions for projects already in the permitting pipeline and potential implications for future large-load sites.
October 30 - Dominion 500-kV Northern Virginia transmission proceedings: public-comment deadline; written-comment deadline for the Morrisville–Wishing Star project. Regulatory opposition, transmission-route disputes and environmental objections could affect the timing of additional grid capacity for Northern Virginia data centers.
October 30-31 - SpaceX / Google Colossus compute contract: GPU delivery grace period; conditional contract deadline under the reported $920M/month compute agreement. If approximately 110,000 contracted Nvidia GPUs were not made available by September 30, expiration of a reported one-month cure period could give Google termination or fee-reduction options. Actual nonperformance has not been established.
NOVEMBER
Early November, conditional - SpaceX / Anthropic $1.25B/month compute contract: first potential termination window; reported May 3 agreement provides an initial three-month period followed by a 90-day termination mechanism. Early November represents a theoretical earliest termination window if valid notice was delivered at the first permissible opportunity. No actual termination notice or renewal decision has been confirmed.
November 3 - New Mexico state elections / Project Jupiter permitting outlook; gubernatorial, land-commissioner and local elections could alter the political environment surrounding the Green Chile pipeline, microgrid approvals and disputed state-land access. Results would not automatically change existing permit decisions.
November 5-9 - Akamai / Anthropic $11.6B compute agreement: SEC contract disclosure window; Akamai's expected quarterly reporting and subsequent 10-Q filing could reveal additional contractual economics, delivery requirements, termination provisions or infrastructure obligations under its large Anthropic compute agreement. Public disclosure may exclude commercially sensitive terms.
November 9-10 - SpaceX / xAI Colossus II: Mississippi gas-turbine permit hearing; regulators hear challenges concerning the Southaven gas-power installation and its 41 turbines. Potentially consequential for the reliability and legality of on-site generation supporting Colossus II's rapid GPU expansion.
November 16 - Oracle Project Jupiter: dispositive and evidentiary motions deadline; final scheduled pre-hearing motions in the revised air-permit calendar, including challenges to testimony or evidence that could materially influence the December proceeding.
November 16 - Dominion Northern Virginia 500-kV transmission evidentiary hearing; Virginia SCC begins examining transmission upgrades supporting regional electricity demand. Watch engineering testimony on route selection, construction schedules, grid reliability and the earliest dates at which additional large loads can be served.
November 17 - Oracle Project Jupiter: technical testimony deadline; engineering evidence due in the New Mexico air-permit proceeding, including fuel-cell operating limits, emissions assumptions and potential power-delivery constraints. Particularly important following Oracle's reduction of projected annual emissions from approximately 8.8M to 5.7M tons.
November 17 - Dominion / NextEra merger: Virginia regulatory hearing; state regulators examine the proposed merger. Potential implications for utility capital spending, transmission investment and cost recovery across one of the largest U.S. data-center electricity markets.
November 23 - Oracle Project Jupiter: previously scheduled air-permit decision date, superseded; the earlier target conflicts with the subsequently scheduled December 7 evidentiary hearing. Watch for an amended final-decision timetable rather than assuming permit approval on November 23.
November 30 - Oracle Project Jupiter: rebuttal and motions-response deadline; last scheduled stage for rebuttal notices and responses before the December air-permit hearing. May clarify whether opponents' technical objections present material obstacles to approval.
DECEMBER
December 3 - Oracle Project Jupiter / Green Chile gas pipeline: FERC federal-authorization deadline; the published 90-day deadline for other agencies' federal authorization decisions in pipeline docket CP26-80. A key procedural milestone for gas infrastructure supporting Jupiter, although it does not guarantee FERC certificate approval or resolve the disputed New Mexico state-land crossing.
December 4 - Meta Hyperion / Entergy gas-generation permits: EPA petition deadline; end of the federal petition window covering operating permits for the Richland Parish generating stations. A successful challenge could complicate the regulatory pathway for power infrastructure associated with Meta's Hyperion buildout.
December 7, 09:00 MT - Oracle Project Jupiter: full air-permit evidentiary hearing; New Mexico regulators begin the substantive proceeding over Jupiter's fuel-cell microgrid. A central Q4 catalyst for the project's 2027 delivery schedule, with final regulatory clearance still dependent on subsequent rulings.
December 10 - ERCOT Texas large-data-center impact report deadline; state-directed assessment of proposed large loads and their effects on electricity demand and infrastructure. Developer-specific information could help distinguish projects with credible energization pathways from speculative capacity reservations, while informing future Texas utility policy.
December 16 - Meta Hyperion Phase 2 / Entergy Project Evest: Louisiana PSC consideration; scheduled commission consideration of docket U-37882, covering incremental generation and transmission infrastructure for the Louisiana data-center expansion. Potential impact on power availability, cost allocation and Hyperion's subsequent construction phases.
December 22 - PJM 2029/30 capacity auction results; a critical forward-looking assessment of electricity scarcity across the Mid-Atlantic and other data-center-heavy markets. Watch procured generation capacity, zonal shortages and forward power costs for Northern Virginia and surrounding hyperscaler clusters.
December 31 - SpaceX / Google compute agreement: bilateral termination-right threshold; reported $920M/month contract becomes terminable on 90 days' notice after year-end. This opens a potential March 2027 exit pathway, but does not represent an automatic expiration or indicate that either party will exercise its rights.
By December 31 - Oracle Michigan Saline Township: network-core delivery target; Oracle expects completion of the campus network core by year-end, ahead of its planned second-half 2027 customer-delivery window. A useful early test of construction execution before full power and compute acceptance.
JANUARY–MARCH 2027
Early January, conditional - SpaceX / Reflection AI $150M/month compute contract: first potential termination window; reported contract provisions suggest an early-2027 exit could become possible following the initial service term and required notice. No termination notice is confirmed. Watch whether capacity is renewed, repriced or allocated to another customer.
January 12 - Northern Virginia 500-kV transmission expansion: Virginia SCC hearing; regulatory hearing on the Doubs–Goose Creek, Aspen–Doubs and Goose Creek–Woodside projects under PUR-2026-00076. Route approvals and project conditions could materially affect the timing of future power delivery to Northern Virginia data-center clusters.
January 12 - Tenaska 1.58-GW Expedition gas-generation project: certification hearing; Virginia SCC examines the proposed Fluvanna County gas-fired generation facility. A major regional electricity-supply catalyst amid rapid growth in AI-related power demand, although the project is not dedicated exclusively to data centers.
January 19 - New Mexico legislature begins session / Project Jupiter regulatory risk; proposed legislation on microgrid oversight, water consumption, air emissions and data-center development could affect Jupiter and future projects. Watch whether any bills seek to apply new requirements to already-announced facilities.
February, target - Oracle Project Jupiter / Green Chile pipeline: revised expected in-service window; developer filings indicate a February 2027 pipeline-service target, delayed from August 2026. Actual operation remains dependent on permits, land rights, construction and commissioning.
Q1 2027, target - TeraWulf / Fluidstack / Google: Lake Mariner CB-5 delivery; expected phased commissioning of additional contracted AI capacity. Monitor customer acceptance, commencement of lease payments and any associated Google credit-support commitments.
Q1 2027, target - Applied Digital Polaris Forge 2: 200-MW facility completion; expected achievement of full initial contracted critical-IT capacity under a long-duration hyperscaler lease. A significant milestone for converting contracted infrastructure into rent-generating assets.
Late March, conditional - SpaceX / Google Colossus: earliest potential effective contract termination; approximately 90 days after the December 31 termination-right threshold. If valid notice was submitted immediately, the approximately $920M/month agreement could potentially end or be renegotiated around this period.
APRIL–JUNE 2027
April 1 - DTE / Oracle Michigan battery-storage contract: annual project update mechanism; the filed storage agreement contains an annual project-portfolio reporting provision. Once operative under the contract, updates may offer clues about commissioning progress, delivery delays and the cost of fulfilling Oracle's associated 1,383-MW storage commitment.
April 21 - Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative large-load tariff hearing; Virginia SCC hearing on revised LP-1, DPS, HV-1 and HV-2 electricity tariffs. Changes to minimum commitments, collateral, capacity reservation and cost allocation could directly affect the economics of future large AI data-center projects.
May 1 - DTE / Oracle Michigan: annual storage subscription-charge adjustment mechanism; contractual adjustment date under the electricity-storage arrangements, subject to the agreement's operating provisions. Important for understanding the recurring cost of securing electricity infrastructure beyond the data-center buildings themselves.
May 12 - PJM 2030/31 capacity auction opens; the next forward capacity procurement cycle tests whether new dispatchable generation can keep pace with hyperscaler and AI data-center load growth. Critical for evaluating longer-term electricity prices, grid reliability and regional site-selection economics.
Q2 2027, target - Galaxy / CoreWeave Helios Phase II: first 260-MW delivery; expected initial handover of the next contracted critical-IT phase under CoreWeave's long-term agreement. The $3.5B construction-financing structure makes timely completion, tenant acceptance and rental activation especially important.
First half of 2027, target - Oracle Project Jupiter: initial customer compute delivery; Oracle's published first-delivery window for the New Mexico project. The central risk is whether usable computing capacity can be delivered despite the distinct permitting, gas-pipeline and microgrid dependencies.
First half of 2027, target - Oracle Shackelford Texas campus: initial customer delivery; planned beginning of commercial compute delivery at Oracle's Vantage-linked Texas development. Watch actual energized IT capacity and customer acceptance against the company's scheduled rollout.
Mid-2027, target - Applied Digital / CoreWeave Polaris Forge 1: final 150-MW building readiness; expected availability of the fourth building within the broader 400-MW campus commitment. Delays could postpone customer acceptance and the corresponding phase of recurring lease revenue.
JULY–DECEMBER 2027
Second half of 2027, target - TeraWulf / Anthropic: first Justified Data campus delivery; initial capacity expected under Anthropic's approximately $19B, 20-year infrastructure lease. An especially important milestone because rental income begins on delivery of the applicable premises rather than simply upon execution of the contract.
Second half of 2027, target - Oracle Wisconsin Lighthouse campus: first customer delivery; planned initial OCI capacity delivery amid the separate Wisconsin transmission expansion under PSC docket 137-CE-229. Watch the distinction between staged electricity supply and completion of the permanent high-voltage network.
Second half of 2027, target - Oracle Michigan Saline Township: first customer delivery; Oracle's anticipated start of commercial compute availability. Actual commissioning needs to be measured separately from the earlier utility-load ramp and the associated storage-development obligations.
Second half of 2027, target - Applied Digital Polaris Forge 3 / Delta Forge 1: initial customer deliveries; approximately 300 MW of critical-IT capacity planned at each campus over the 2027–28 delivery period. Electricity infrastructure, tenant acceptance and contractual rent commencement are the key milestones.
December 2027, target - Oracle / DTE Michigan: approximately 1.4-GW maximum-load milestone; utility filings anticipate a ramp toward maximum contracted electricity demand by year-end. The market-relevant test is whether realized load tracks contractual expectations and whether the capacity can be monetized through operating AI clusters.
EARLY 2028 AND LONGER-TERM RISK
Early 2028, target - TeraWulf / Anthropic Justified Data: full 401-MW capacity handover; planned completion of the entire contracted critical-IT campus. Delays to later phases could postpone rental income despite successful first deliveries in 2027.
May 2029, contractual horizon - SpaceX / Anthropic compute agreement; reported outer payment horizon of the $1.25B/month arrangement, subject to earlier termination rights and possible amendments. Contractual duration should not be confused with guaranteed utilization or non-cancellable revenue.
MAJOR UNSCHEDULED RISKS — DATES TBC
Date TBC - Oracle Project Jupiter / New Mexico State Land Office; reversal, legal resolution or rerouting of the disputed approximately 0.6-mile state-land crossing required for the Green Chile pipeline. Potentially as important as the federal pipeline proceedings because approval at one government level does not automatically secure every right-of-way.
Date TBC - Oracle Project Jupiter / El Paso Electric supplemental grid-power agreement; definitive interconnection and electricity-supply terms, potentially followed by Doña Ana County action involving existing project financing arrangements. A credible alternative power pathway could reduce risk to the 2027 compute-delivery schedule.
Date TBC - Oracle Wisconsin Lighthouse / ATC transmission application; new completeness determination, environmental review and construction-certification milestones under PSC 137-CE-229. The earlier December 2026 decision timetable should not be treated as current.
Date TBC - Oracle / Wisconsin Point Beach nuclear-power arrangement; regulatory approval of the proposed nuclear-electricity supply structure. Relevant to long-term power costs and the financing of electricity infrastructure supporting Oracle's regional expansion.
Date TBC - Oracle Michigan / DTE electricity-contract appeal; appellate developments concerning the Michigan PSC's approval of Oracle's special electricity arrangements. A remand, settlement or revised contract could alter the economic assumptions behind the Saline Township buildout.
Date TBC - Oracle Michigan / DTE remaining battery-storage commitments; regulatory approvals, financing and commissioning schedules for storage capacity beyond the first 332 MW of identified projects, against an approximately 1,383-MW overall commitment.
Date TBC - PJM / FERC large-load interconnection and curtailment framework; revised regulatory proposals governing how very large data-center loads connect to constrained electricity systems and whether they can face service restrictions during grid emergencies. Potentially material for future hyperscaler project economics.
Date TBC - Galaxy / CoreWeave Helios additional 830-MW commercialization; binding tenant agreements and associated financing or credit-support commitments for approved but unleased expansion capacity. Distinguish executed contracts from preliminary capacity discussions.
Date TBC - SpaceX / Anthropic compute contract extension or repricing; any disclosed amendment, renewal, contract expansion or termination notice covering the multibillion-dollar Colossus compute relationship. Particularly sensitive to utilization, GPU-generation transitions and customer alternatives.
Date TBC - Microsoft / Nscale Loughton replacement tenant or power-connection resolution; potential replacement agreement following reported grid-connection delays affecting Microsoft's 50-MW commitment. An indicator of how power-availability risks can cause major hyperscalers to withdraw from otherwise planned capacity.
Date TBC - CoreWeave infrastructure debt refinancing / repayment amendments; lender consents, repricing, collateral changes or modifications to the company's significant 2026–27 debt maturities and amortization schedule. Financing events may influence the pace of GPU deployments and contracted data-center occupancy.
Date TBC - Meta Hyperion additional generation and transmission approvals; remaining Louisiana utility and environmental decisions needed to translate announced multi-gigawatt campus plans into firm, deliverable electric capacity.
The scheduled dates above include hearings, filing deadlines, contractual thresholds and company delivery targets—not all are decision dates. Conditional contract windows should be treated as potential catalysts only; no exercise of termination rights is implied.
October 20 - Northern Virginia data-center permitting moratorium, Loudoun County; county supervisors consider a potential pause of up to 12 months on certain new data-center and substation approvals. A consequential test of how aggressively America's largest data-center market may restrict future expansion. Existing by-right projects may be treated differently.
October 21 - Related Digital Michigan data-center wastewater permit hearing; Michigan EGLE holds a public hearing on permit MI0060445 for the Saline Township development. Water infrastructure is one of several permitting dependencies for Oracle's planned approximately 1.4-GW Michigan campus.
October 22 - Bloom Energy Q3 earnings / Project Jupiter fuel-cell supply; update on fuel-cell manufacturing capacity, order conversion and commissioning schedules. Particularly relevant to Oracle's proposed 2.45-GW fuel-cell microgrid at Project Jupiter, where equipment production and installation could become critical-path constraints.
October 26, 08:30 MT - Oracle Project Jupiter air-permit dismissal hearing; New Mexico regulators consider motions to dismiss the air-permit proceeding. An adverse procedural ruling could reshape or delay the project's approval pathway before the December evidentiary hearing.
October 29 - Project Jupiter air-permit discovery hearing; hearing on discovery motions in New Mexico's NSR 10883 proceeding. Additional disclosure requirements or expanded technical challenges could lengthen the regulatory process.
October 29 - Texas / San Antonio data-center zoning decision; City Council considers additional restrictions affecting data-center development. Watch for exemptions for projects already in the permitting pipeline and potential implications for future large-load sites.
October 30 - Dominion 500-kV Northern Virginia transmission proceedings: public-comment deadline; written-comment deadline for the Morrisville–Wishing Star project. Regulatory opposition, transmission-route disputes and environmental objections could affect the timing of additional grid capacity for Northern Virginia data centers.
October 30-31 - SpaceX / Google Colossus compute contract: GPU delivery grace period; conditional contract deadline under the reported $920M/month compute agreement. If approximately 110,000 contracted Nvidia GPUs were not made available by September 30, expiration of a reported one-month cure period could give Google termination or fee-reduction options. Actual nonperformance has not been established.
NOVEMBER
Early November, conditional - SpaceX / Anthropic $1.25B/month compute contract: first potential termination window; reported May 3 agreement provides an initial three-month period followed by a 90-day termination mechanism. Early November represents a theoretical earliest termination window if valid notice was delivered at the first permissible opportunity. No actual termination notice or renewal decision has been confirmed.
November 3 - New Mexico state elections / Project Jupiter permitting outlook; gubernatorial, land-commissioner and local elections could alter the political environment surrounding the Green Chile pipeline, microgrid approvals and disputed state-land access. Results would not automatically change existing permit decisions.
November 5-9 - Akamai / Anthropic $11.6B compute agreement: SEC contract disclosure window; Akamai's expected quarterly reporting and subsequent 10-Q filing could reveal additional contractual economics, delivery requirements, termination provisions or infrastructure obligations under its large Anthropic compute agreement. Public disclosure may exclude commercially sensitive terms.
November 9-10 - SpaceX / xAI Colossus II: Mississippi gas-turbine permit hearing; regulators hear challenges concerning the Southaven gas-power installation and its 41 turbines. Potentially consequential for the reliability and legality of on-site generation supporting Colossus II's rapid GPU expansion.
November 16 - Oracle Project Jupiter: dispositive and evidentiary motions deadline; final scheduled pre-hearing motions in the revised air-permit calendar, including challenges to testimony or evidence that could materially influence the December proceeding.
November 16 - Dominion Northern Virginia 500-kV transmission evidentiary hearing; Virginia SCC begins examining transmission upgrades supporting regional electricity demand. Watch engineering testimony on route selection, construction schedules, grid reliability and the earliest dates at which additional large loads can be served.
November 17 - Oracle Project Jupiter: technical testimony deadline; engineering evidence due in the New Mexico air-permit proceeding, including fuel-cell operating limits, emissions assumptions and potential power-delivery constraints. Particularly important following Oracle's reduction of projected annual emissions from approximately 8.8M to 5.7M tons.
November 17 - Dominion / NextEra merger: Virginia regulatory hearing; state regulators examine the proposed merger. Potential implications for utility capital spending, transmission investment and cost recovery across one of the largest U.S. data-center electricity markets.
November 23 - Oracle Project Jupiter: previously scheduled air-permit decision date, superseded; the earlier target conflicts with the subsequently scheduled December 7 evidentiary hearing. Watch for an amended final-decision timetable rather than assuming permit approval on November 23.
November 30 - Oracle Project Jupiter: rebuttal and motions-response deadline; last scheduled stage for rebuttal notices and responses before the December air-permit hearing. May clarify whether opponents' technical objections present material obstacles to approval.
DECEMBER
December 3 - Oracle Project Jupiter / Green Chile gas pipeline: FERC federal-authorization deadline; the published 90-day deadline for other agencies' federal authorization decisions in pipeline docket CP26-80. A key procedural milestone for gas infrastructure supporting Jupiter, although it does not guarantee FERC certificate approval or resolve the disputed New Mexico state-land crossing.
December 4 - Meta Hyperion / Entergy gas-generation permits: EPA petition deadline; end of the federal petition window covering operating permits for the Richland Parish generating stations. A successful challenge could complicate the regulatory pathway for power infrastructure associated with Meta's Hyperion buildout.
December 7, 09:00 MT - Oracle Project Jupiter: full air-permit evidentiary hearing; New Mexico regulators begin the substantive proceeding over Jupiter's fuel-cell microgrid. A central Q4 catalyst for the project's 2027 delivery schedule, with final regulatory clearance still dependent on subsequent rulings.
December 10 - ERCOT Texas large-data-center impact report deadline; state-directed assessment of proposed large loads and their effects on electricity demand and infrastructure. Developer-specific information could help distinguish projects with credible energization pathways from speculative capacity reservations, while informing future Texas utility policy.
December 16 - Meta Hyperion Phase 2 / Entergy Project Evest: Louisiana PSC consideration; scheduled commission consideration of docket U-37882, covering incremental generation and transmission infrastructure for the Louisiana data-center expansion. Potential impact on power availability, cost allocation and Hyperion's subsequent construction phases.
December 22 - PJM 2029/30 capacity auction results; a critical forward-looking assessment of electricity scarcity across the Mid-Atlantic and other data-center-heavy markets. Watch procured generation capacity, zonal shortages and forward power costs for Northern Virginia and surrounding hyperscaler clusters.
December 31 - SpaceX / Google compute agreement: bilateral termination-right threshold; reported $920M/month contract becomes terminable on 90 days' notice after year-end. This opens a potential March 2027 exit pathway, but does not represent an automatic expiration or indicate that either party will exercise its rights.
By December 31 - Oracle Michigan Saline Township: network-core delivery target; Oracle expects completion of the campus network core by year-end, ahead of its planned second-half 2027 customer-delivery window. A useful early test of construction execution before full power and compute acceptance.
JANUARY–MARCH 2027
Early January, conditional - SpaceX / Reflection AI $150M/month compute contract: first potential termination window; reported contract provisions suggest an early-2027 exit could become possible following the initial service term and required notice. No termination notice is confirmed. Watch whether capacity is renewed, repriced or allocated to another customer.
January 12 - Northern Virginia 500-kV transmission expansion: Virginia SCC hearing; regulatory hearing on the Doubs–Goose Creek, Aspen–Doubs and Goose Creek–Woodside projects under PUR-2026-00076. Route approvals and project conditions could materially affect the timing of future power delivery to Northern Virginia data-center clusters.
January 12 - Tenaska 1.58-GW Expedition gas-generation project: certification hearing; Virginia SCC examines the proposed Fluvanna County gas-fired generation facility. A major regional electricity-supply catalyst amid rapid growth in AI-related power demand, although the project is not dedicated exclusively to data centers.
January 19 - New Mexico legislature begins session / Project Jupiter regulatory risk; proposed legislation on microgrid oversight, water consumption, air emissions and data-center development could affect Jupiter and future projects. Watch whether any bills seek to apply new requirements to already-announced facilities.
February, target - Oracle Project Jupiter / Green Chile pipeline: revised expected in-service window; developer filings indicate a February 2027 pipeline-service target, delayed from August 2026. Actual operation remains dependent on permits, land rights, construction and commissioning.
Q1 2027, target - TeraWulf / Fluidstack / Google: Lake Mariner CB-5 delivery; expected phased commissioning of additional contracted AI capacity. Monitor customer acceptance, commencement of lease payments and any associated Google credit-support commitments.
Q1 2027, target - Applied Digital Polaris Forge 2: 200-MW facility completion; expected achievement of full initial contracted critical-IT capacity under a long-duration hyperscaler lease. A significant milestone for converting contracted infrastructure into rent-generating assets.
Late March, conditional - SpaceX / Google Colossus: earliest potential effective contract termination; approximately 90 days after the December 31 termination-right threshold. If valid notice was submitted immediately, the approximately $920M/month agreement could potentially end or be renegotiated around this period.
APRIL–JUNE 2027
April 1 - DTE / Oracle Michigan battery-storage contract: annual project update mechanism; the filed storage agreement contains an annual project-portfolio reporting provision. Once operative under the contract, updates may offer clues about commissioning progress, delivery delays and the cost of fulfilling Oracle's associated 1,383-MW storage commitment.
April 21 - Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative large-load tariff hearing; Virginia SCC hearing on revised LP-1, DPS, HV-1 and HV-2 electricity tariffs. Changes to minimum commitments, collateral, capacity reservation and cost allocation could directly affect the economics of future large AI data-center projects.
May 1 - DTE / Oracle Michigan: annual storage subscription-charge adjustment mechanism; contractual adjustment date under the electricity-storage arrangements, subject to the agreement's operating provisions. Important for understanding the recurring cost of securing electricity infrastructure beyond the data-center buildings themselves.
May 12 - PJM 2030/31 capacity auction opens; the next forward capacity procurement cycle tests whether new dispatchable generation can keep pace with hyperscaler and AI data-center load growth. Critical for evaluating longer-term electricity prices, grid reliability and regional site-selection economics.
Q2 2027, target - Galaxy / CoreWeave Helios Phase II: first 260-MW delivery; expected initial handover of the next contracted critical-IT phase under CoreWeave's long-term agreement. The $3.5B construction-financing structure makes timely completion, tenant acceptance and rental activation especially important.
First half of 2027, target - Oracle Project Jupiter: initial customer compute delivery; Oracle's published first-delivery window for the New Mexico project. The central risk is whether usable computing capacity can be delivered despite the distinct permitting, gas-pipeline and microgrid dependencies.
First half of 2027, target - Oracle Shackelford Texas campus: initial customer delivery; planned beginning of commercial compute delivery at Oracle's Vantage-linked Texas development. Watch actual energized IT capacity and customer acceptance against the company's scheduled rollout.
Mid-2027, target - Applied Digital / CoreWeave Polaris Forge 1: final 150-MW building readiness; expected availability of the fourth building within the broader 400-MW campus commitment. Delays could postpone customer acceptance and the corresponding phase of recurring lease revenue.
JULY–DECEMBER 2027
Second half of 2027, target - TeraWulf / Anthropic: first Justified Data campus delivery; initial capacity expected under Anthropic's approximately $19B, 20-year infrastructure lease. An especially important milestone because rental income begins on delivery of the applicable premises rather than simply upon execution of the contract.
Second half of 2027, target - Oracle Wisconsin Lighthouse campus: first customer delivery; planned initial OCI capacity delivery amid the separate Wisconsin transmission expansion under PSC docket 137-CE-229. Watch the distinction between staged electricity supply and completion of the permanent high-voltage network.
Second half of 2027, target - Oracle Michigan Saline Township: first customer delivery; Oracle's anticipated start of commercial compute availability. Actual commissioning needs to be measured separately from the earlier utility-load ramp and the associated storage-development obligations.
Second half of 2027, target - Applied Digital Polaris Forge 3 / Delta Forge 1: initial customer deliveries; approximately 300 MW of critical-IT capacity planned at each campus over the 2027–28 delivery period. Electricity infrastructure, tenant acceptance and contractual rent commencement are the key milestones.
December 2027, target - Oracle / DTE Michigan: approximately 1.4-GW maximum-load milestone; utility filings anticipate a ramp toward maximum contracted electricity demand by year-end. The market-relevant test is whether realized load tracks contractual expectations and whether the capacity can be monetized through operating AI clusters.
EARLY 2028 AND LONGER-TERM RISK
Early 2028, target - TeraWulf / Anthropic Justified Data: full 401-MW capacity handover; planned completion of the entire contracted critical-IT campus. Delays to later phases could postpone rental income despite successful first deliveries in 2027.
May 2029, contractual horizon - SpaceX / Anthropic compute agreement; reported outer payment horizon of the $1.25B/month arrangement, subject to earlier termination rights and possible amendments. Contractual duration should not be confused with guaranteed utilization or non-cancellable revenue.
MAJOR UNSCHEDULED RISKS — DATES TBC
Date TBC - Oracle Project Jupiter / New Mexico State Land Office; reversal, legal resolution or rerouting of the disputed approximately 0.6-mile state-land crossing required for the Green Chile pipeline. Potentially as important as the federal pipeline proceedings because approval at one government level does not automatically secure every right-of-way.
Date TBC - Oracle Project Jupiter / El Paso Electric supplemental grid-power agreement; definitive interconnection and electricity-supply terms, potentially followed by Doña Ana County action involving existing project financing arrangements. A credible alternative power pathway could reduce risk to the 2027 compute-delivery schedule.
Date TBC - Oracle Wisconsin Lighthouse / ATC transmission application; new completeness determination, environmental review and construction-certification milestones under PSC 137-CE-229. The earlier December 2026 decision timetable should not be treated as current.
Date TBC - Oracle / Wisconsin Point Beach nuclear-power arrangement; regulatory approval of the proposed nuclear-electricity supply structure. Relevant to long-term power costs and the financing of electricity infrastructure supporting Oracle's regional expansion.
Date TBC - Oracle Michigan / DTE electricity-contract appeal; appellate developments concerning the Michigan PSC's approval of Oracle's special electricity arrangements. A remand, settlement or revised contract could alter the economic assumptions behind the Saline Township buildout.
Date TBC - Oracle Michigan / DTE remaining battery-storage commitments; regulatory approvals, financing and commissioning schedules for storage capacity beyond the first 332 MW of identified projects, against an approximately 1,383-MW overall commitment.
Date TBC - PJM / FERC large-load interconnection and curtailment framework; revised regulatory proposals governing how very large data-center loads connect to constrained electricity systems and whether they can face service restrictions during grid emergencies. Potentially material for future hyperscaler project economics.
Date TBC - Galaxy / CoreWeave Helios additional 830-MW commercialization; binding tenant agreements and associated financing or credit-support commitments for approved but unleased expansion capacity. Distinguish executed contracts from preliminary capacity discussions.
Date TBC - SpaceX / Anthropic compute contract extension or repricing; any disclosed amendment, renewal, contract expansion or termination notice covering the multibillion-dollar Colossus compute relationship. Particularly sensitive to utilization, GPU-generation transitions and customer alternatives.
Date TBC - Microsoft / Nscale Loughton replacement tenant or power-connection resolution; potential replacement agreement following reported grid-connection delays affecting Microsoft's 50-MW commitment. An indicator of how power-availability risks can cause major hyperscalers to withdraw from otherwise planned capacity.
Date TBC - CoreWeave infrastructure debt refinancing / repayment amendments; lender consents, repricing, collateral changes or modifications to the company's significant 2026–27 debt maturities and amortization schedule. Financing events may influence the pace of GPU deployments and contracted data-center occupancy.
Date TBC - Meta Hyperion additional generation and transmission approvals; remaining Louisiana utility and environmental decisions needed to translate announced multi-gigawatt campus plans into firm, deliverable electric capacity.
The scheduled dates above include hearings, filing deadlines, contractual thresholds and company delivery targets—not all are decision dates. Conditional contract windows should be treated as potential catalysts only; no exercise of termination rights is implied.